InvestingSuccess

(originally posted to this website on Dec 31, 2025)

The race is on to see who can be the first to extract critical minerals from the seafloor. One of the race participants is The Metals Company (N:TMC). Here and now, the Company is awaiting approvals from the White House regarding the suggested NOAA approach to the seafloor mineral extraction permitting process.

In the meantime, TMC has now completed some laboratory studies that demonstrate the mineral-rich nodules on the seafloor area near the South Pacific island of Nauru contain valuable amounts of manganese sulfate – a key material in battery cathodes for EVs.

TMC price has a cyclicality to it. Larger cycles are equivalent to the 225-day Venus orbital cycle around the Sun. Smaller cycles equate to the Mercury axial spin cycle of 58.65 days. Here and now, one can see on the above chart how the larger 225-day cycle ended in early December. The end of this cycle marked the failure of a rally attempt. Here and now, one can also see the trend on TMC – as measured by the Slow Stochastic and the True Strength Index – is bearish. Late January will bring the end of the current 58.65-day cycle AND a Bayer Rule #11-A increment (see green line in chart). I will be watching TMC closely in January. I have reason to believe share price is going to briefly dip to around $4.50 per share.

The Company says it has about $115 million cash on hand now. Exploration expenses plus general & admin expenses in Q3 amounted to around $50 million. TMC says not to worry because there are outstanding warrants that when exercised will bring in fresh money.

Here is the breakdown: there are 5.3 million warrants outstanding at an exercise price of $2.00. There are 12.3 million warrants outstanding at an exercise price of $4.50. There are 1 million warrants at an exercise price of $5.87. There are 9.1 million warrants at an exercise price of $4.72 subject to the US Govt granting mineral extraction licenses. Beyond these tranches, there are 6.8 million warrants at an exercise price of $7.00 and 24.5 million with an exercise price of $11.50.

TMC needs some dramatic news and soon if it is going to sport cash “burn” rates like it did in Q3. The share price really needs to get closer to $9 or $10 to encourage warrant holders to exercise their warrants. Share price will only move if the US Govt can offer up some approval of the recent NOAA proposal and if the island of Nauru itself needs to issue operating permits to TMC.

The clock is ticking….I am watching the 58.65 day cycle slowly unfold….

What Has Happened Since

TMC finally hit a brick wall. It is the United Nations (a subcommittee on seafloor activities) that gives permission to exploit minerals from the seafloor. In an effort to save itself, TMC then entered into a bizarre deal where it used its remaining cash plus proceeds from a financing to acquire a 1% royalty in a Minnesota iron ore project. Shareholders have been less than impressed.

At the time TMC went public, Venus was at -1.00 degrees latitude and Mercury was at -5.00 degrees latitude. Examining these latitude levels into the current timeframe shows that price does exhibit a response at Venus +/- 1.00 degrees and Mercury at +/- 5.00 degrees. TMC is also underpinned by a 58.65-day cycle. Price tends to exhibit a response at cycle endpoints and midpoints.

Until or unless the United Nations decides to allow sub-surface exploitation of mineral respources, TMC will be nothing more than a 1% royalty in an iron ore mine in Minnesota.