InvestingSuccess

(This Post Originally Appeared on This Site May 6, 2026)

You have probably read and heard about it by now – there is a shortage of Sulfur in the world thanks to the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Copper prices are starting to react as this story gains traction.

Here is what is NOT being asked.

(1) Why is there Sulfur coming out of the Gulf Region in the Middle East?

(2) What is the relation between Copper and Sulfur?

The short answer to query (1) is, Sulfur is a by-product of oil gas refining especially if the oil or gas is “sour” (ie contains Hydrogen Sulfide- H2S).

The short answer to query (2) is, Sulfur is used to make Sulfuric Acid which is used to “leach” Copper mineralization from big heaps of mined Copper ore at mine sites. The collected leachate is then subjected to the SXEW process (Solvent Extraction Electro Winning). Basically, take an acidic solution containing leached/dissolved Copper, subject it to an electrical current, the Copper comes out of solution and collects at the cathode of an electrolytic cell.

Around 25% of global Copper production relies on acid leaching and the SXEW process for Copper recovery. The other 75% of global Copper production involves crushing the mined ore into a fine power and adding it to a tank that contains a chemical solution. The chemical coats the particles of Copper mineralization and causes the particles to float to the surface where they are skimmed off. This process is otherwise called “flotation”.

Here is the other thing that the markets are not realizing right now as panic sweeps the landscape and images of mines being shuttered due to lack of acid are painted in people’s minds – in Canada we refine oil and gas. A goodly amount of it is “sour” and Sulfur is recovered from it as a byproduct.

Consider a Company like Suncor (TSX:SU). It produces 800,000 metric tonnes of Sulfur per year. Other oil and gas producers add to this figure. The Province of Alberta (where the Canadian oil and gas industry is centered) produces 4 million metric tonnes per year. So there are lot more Sulfur makers than just Suncor.

I am quite certain that the Copper mining industry will not be faced with a shutdown and a lack of sulfuric acid. Canada and the US will ensure that the mining industry is not left twisting in the wind.

That being said, Copper prices are rising out of concern of such a shortage. This is pulling share prices of Copper miners higher as a result. One Company to look at is Canadian-based Hud Bay Mining (TSX:HBM).

HBM is underpinned by an 88-day cycle (Mercury orbital period) and a 58.65-day cycle (Mercury axial spin period). The above chart has been fitted with these cycles.

Bayer’s Rules 10-A and 11-A give us further insight into what to expect. From the price gap around April 6, a Bayer’s Rule 10-A projection lands here and now, today. And today HBM reacted sharply to the sulfuric acid shortage story, rising 2% to $32.78. Of course, part of this sharp reaction was due to the 88-day cycle having ended a couple days ago.

What Has Happened Since

The Sulfur shortage fear drove HBM price even higher after this Post. But eventually the market figured it out (there was no shortage crisis) and HBM share price tumbled hard all the way to the $28 level. The AI theme then propelled HBM and copper prices higher into late August and the end of the 58.65-day cycle. Here and now, I am watching the first week of October and the end of the 88-day cycle.